To hone in on the particulars of these successful cases and fine-tune the policy lessons, Alesina and Ardanga select ten cases of fiscal adjustment: Ireland (twice), Australia, Belgium, Denmark, Canada, Netherlands, Sweden, Greece, and Italy (twice, but one is discounted). All occur during the mid-1980s through the mid-1990s. The results are remarkable, in part for their modesty. Of the ten cases (a limited number drawn from a distinct period to keep the sample manageable) only “two cases appear unambiguously expansionary: Ireland 1987–9 and Australia.” Denmark, per contra Giavazzi and Pagano, now appears to be “mixed.” Notably, “Canada, Netherlands, Sweden, Ireland and Greece show no sign of an expansionary fiscal advantage.” Belgium is “somewhat unclear,” while in Italy it was too soon to tell. In short, of the ten cases examined in detail, only two support the thesis advanced so powerfully on the basis of the earlier econometric tests: cuts lead to growth if and only if they are on the expenditure side.

Mark Blyth, Austerity, loc. 467