Expectations about human behavior are much less reliable than many of the most common inductive expectations about nature. Indeed, their unreliability is the central driving force of most great literature. In a cute moment, one might say that one of the strongest expectations we must have of people in the long run is that they will defy our expectations.

XREF: Connects to the psychology of prediction and narrative theory — the idea that literature thrives on breached expectations resonates with work on reader anticipation and surprise. SEED: A possible essay angle: how unreliable human behavior underpins narrative craft, contrasting scientific induction with literary unpredictability.

Russell Hardin, Trust and Trustworthiness, loc. 723