Finally, the threat is not discredited even if the Russians accomplish their purpose without triggering war. If the Russians estimate that the chance of inadvertent war during a particular month rises from very small to not-so-small if they create a crisis, and they go ahead anyway, and no major war occurs, they still have little reason to suppose that their original estimate was wrong, and little reason to suppose that repetition would be less risky, any more than a person who survives a single play of Russian roulette should decide it isn't dangerous after all.

QUESTION: This probabilistic reasoning about repeated risk-taking is striking — worth reflecting on how it maps to other domains beyond nuclear brinkmanship.

Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, loc. 422