It is interesting that this problem, though it arises most dramatically in situations that would usually be characterized as conflict, like that between the Russians and us or between the burglar and me, is logically equivalent to the problem of two or more partners who lack confidence in each other. If each is under some temptation to abscond with the joint assets; if each has a little suspicion that the other may be contemplating the same thing; if each realizes that the other may suspect too, and may suspect himself the object of suspicion; we have a pay-off matrix identical with that of a surprise attack problem. If the heat is on some members of the mob, the rest of the mob may be tempted to rub them out to keep them from squealing, and those in danger may be tempted to squeal in self-defense. So the game structure of “preclusive self-defense” is the same as that of “partnership confidence.”

XREF: This is classic game theory — the prisoner's dilemma logic applied to trust and preemptive defense. Connects to Schelling-style coordination problems.

Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, loc. 463