But if we can threaten him with a one-in-twenty chance of all-out war in the event he proceeds, and he does proceed, we can hold our breath and have nineteen-to-one odds of getting off without general war. Of course, if we scale down the risk to us, we scale it down to him too; it may degrade the threat to put too much safety in it. But in cases where there is danger that we completely misjudge the enemy's commitment to an action, or completely misjudge his ability to control his own agents, allies, or commanders, the more moderate risk may deter anything that is still within his control.

XREF: Connects to Schelling's broader work on deterrence and the credibility of threats.

Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, loc. 427