Finally, while there may be arrangements that have a high probability of providing warning of the enemy's preparation for an attack, the value of the system depends on what we can do if we do get warning. We can send off our own anticipatory strike, hoping to get in first; but this is an unattractive course if the warning is ambiguous. A false alarm then leads to war. And a true one precludes any last-minute deterrence.

SEED: The false-alarm-to-war dilemma is a strong essay angle about the hidden costs of intelligence capacity.

Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, loc. 559