Jamal Awil

← The Strategy of Conflict

Failed threats create mutual interest in undoing commitments. [causal]

In case a threat is made and fails to deter, there is a second stage prior to fulfillment in which both parties have an interest in undoing the commitment. The purpose of the threat is gone, its deterrence value is zero, and only the commitment exists to motivate fulfillment. … Furthermore, “undoing” does not mean neglecting a commitment regardless of reputation; “undoing,” if the commitment of reputation was real, means disconnecting the threat from one’s reputation, perhaps one’s own reputation with the threatened person himself. It is therefore a subtle and tenuous situation in which, though both have an interest in undoing the commitment, they may be quite unable to collaborate in undoing it.

XREF: Connects to game theory, Schelling's commitment strategies, and deterrence literature.

Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, loc. 103