Underlying this threat that one “may” retaliate or precipitate war—the decision being somewhat beyond his control—is the notion that some of the most momentous decisions of government are taken by a process that is not entirely predictable, not fully “under control,” not altogether deliberate. It implies that a nation can get even into a major war somewhat inadvertently, by a decision process that might be called “imperfect” in the sense that the response to particular contingencies cannot exactly be foretold by any advance calculations, that the response to a particular contingency may depend on certain random or haphazard processes, or that there will be faulty information, faulty communication, misunderstanding, misuse of authority, panic, or human or mechanical failure.

XREF: Connects to Kahneman's work on decision-making, and to the 'fog of war' concept from Clausewitz.

Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, loc. 453