But, if the gains from even successful surprise are less desired than no war at all, there is no “fundamental” basis for an attack by either side. Nevertheless, it looks as though a modest temptation on each side to sneak in a first blow—a temptation too small by itself to motivate an attack—might become compounded through a process of interacting expectations, with additional motive for attack being produced by successive cycles of “He thinks we think he thinks we think...he thinks we think he’ll attack; so he thinks we shall; so he will; so we must.”

XREF: This echoes game-theoretic escalation dynamics and the security dilemma familiar from deterrence theory.

Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, loc. 462