If, for example, he bids $9.50 for a chance to play the game in Fig. 33 (implying, perhaps, a 90 percent expectation that Column will choose II), $8.65 for the game with 5 replaced by 1 (implying an 85 percent expectation of II), and $9.95 for the game with 5 replaced by 9 (implying a 95 percent expectation of II), and, finally, $5 for the game as in Fig. 32 (implying a random expectation as between I and II), we could conclude that the function, or value to the player, of the upper-right and lower-left payoffs is largely that of coordinating clue. If instead he bids amounts that imply probabilities between I and II that are invariant, or nearly so, with respect to the upper-right and lower-left payoffs, and particularly if he bids the arithmetic mean, the insurance interpretation would be indicated.

DEFINE: Distinguishes the 'coordinating clue' interpretation from the 'insurance' interpretation of payoffs via bid patterns. QUESTION: The bidding method for eliciting which interpretation applies is interesting — could be worth chasing how this could be tested empirically.

Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, loc. 871