Jamal Awil

← The Strategy of Conflict

Publicly declared no-first-use policy paradoxically deters rival attack. [causal]

As General Leslie R. Groves remarked in a speech, "If Russia knows we won't attack first, the Kremlin will be very much less apt to attack us....Our reluctance to strike first is a military disadvantage to us; but it is also, paradoxically, a factor in preventing a world conflict today."

XREF: Connects to nuclear deterrence theory and the rational-actor paradox of mutually assured destruction. Builds on: "Superpowers need credibility of non-aggression, not just defensive assurance."

Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, loc. 525