Jamal Awil

← The Strategy of Conflict

Threats fail against adversaries who ignore rationality or lack alternatives. [causal]

We have observed that the rationality of the adversary is pertinent to the efficacy of a threat, and that madmen, like small children, can often not be controlled by threats. We have recognized that the efficacy of the threat may depend on what alternatives are available to the potential enemy, who, if he is not to react like a trapped lion, must be left some tolerable recourse.

XREF: Connects to game theory concepts of deterrence and the importance of keeping options open for the opponent to avoid escalation.

Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, loc. 23