Jamal Awil

← The Strategy of Conflict

Threats in games require commitment, not just suggestion. [causal]

The issue here is in whether or not we admit that the game has "moves," that is, that it is possible for one player or both players to take actions in the course of the game that irreversibly change the game itself—that in some fashion alter the payoff matrix, the order of choices, or the information structure of the game. If the game by its definition admits no moves of any sort, except mutual agreement and refusal to agree, then it may be true that the "personalities" of the players determine the outcome, in the sense that their expectations in a "moveless" game converge by a process that is wholly psychic. But, if a threat is anything more than an assertion that is intended to appeal to the other player by power of suggestion, we must ask what more it can be. And it must involve some notion of commitment—real or fake—if it is to be anything.

Builds on: "Threats condition action on rivals' moves; commitments fix first moves."

Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, loc. 299