Threats persuade only when the target believes the commitment. [causal]
But if we allow Row to make a threat, he declares that he will choose strategy ii unless Column chooses II; that is, he gives Column a choice of ii,I or i,II by committing himself to that conditional choice. If Column went ahead and chose I, of course, Row would prefer to choose i; and they both know it. The tactic succeeds only if Column believes that Row must choose ii in the event of I.
DEFINE: Distinguishes a genuine strategic threat from an empty one depends on credibility of the conditional commitment.
Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, loc. 297