In 2007, the NYPD produced a document titled Radicalization in the West: The Homegrown Threat, in which it argues that there are four stages of radicalization: pre-radicalization, self-identification, indoctrination, and jihadization. According to this model, all young Muslim males from middle-class and immigrant families fall into the pre-radicalization stage. In short, simply being a member of this group places one on a conveyor belt aimed toward “radicalization.” Now if, by some chance, a member of this group should give up smoking, drinking, and gambling and start to grow a beard and wear traditional Islamic clothing, he is on the fast track toward acquiring “Jihadi-Salafist ideology,” which puts him squarely in the next stage: “self-identification.” Another characteristic of “self-identification” is political awareness and community activism. By the third stage, “indoctrination,” the NYPD tells us, the person has withdrawn from the mosque and has become politicized around a set of new beliefs leading to the fourth stage, “jihadization,” which is when he becomes ready to plan a terrorist attack. Signs of reaching this fourth stage include conducting research on the Internet, performing reconnaissance activity, and acquiring materials. While the report states that there is no profile for a potential terrorist, the thrust of its analysis is precisely about creating such a profile and predicting the activity of potential terrorists. Based on data from a grand total of ten cases, the report states that there is “remarkable consistency in the behaviors and trajectory of each of the plots across the stages” and that “this consistency provides a tool for predictability.”
QUESTION: How widely was this NYPD model applied in surveillance and policing practice, and what concrete harms resulted?
SEED: Could be a strong angle for an essay on how 'predictive' security frameworks blend profiling with criminological narrative.
Deepa Kumar, Islamophobia and the Politi…, loc. 486
An antiracist and antiwar activist as well as a model scholar-teacher. [fact]
Anti-Muslim prejudice was deliberately engineered by European elites at particular moments. [contrarian]
East-West relations drive by conflict alone, not mutual exchange. [causal]
Orientalist scholarship grew from and served European imperialism. [causal]
US policy toward Islamists depended on their stance toward American hegemony [causal]
Political Islam is a modern phenomenon, not an ancient tradition. [contrarian]
Terrorism kills fewer Americans than lightning strikes do. [fact]
Anti-Muslim sentiment is structurally embedded in mainstream American politics. [contrarian]
Islamophobia targets politics more than religious belief itself [definitional]
Early medieval Europe knew virtually nothing of Islam as a religion. [fact]
Eight centuries of Muslim Iberian rule tempered Christian hostility toward Islam. [causal]
Muslim Iberia florished while Christian Europe stagnated culturally [contrarian]
Arabic eclipsed Latin among medieval Christian scholars. [fact]
Medieval Iberia's convivencia showed relative interfaith harmony amid conflict [fact]
Muslim empires translated and advanced other cultures' scientific works. [fact]
Medieval Islamic and Jewish scholars shaped European philosophy. [fact]
Islam became Europe's framing enemy after pagan raiders assimilated. [causal]
Crusades masked political motives uniting papal authority with temporal rulers [causal]
Islam and Christianity claim exclusive finality for their revelations [fact]
Medieval Christians dismissed Jews because Jews posed no power threat. [causal]
Western elites constructed Islam as violent and lascivious from the twelfth century. [fact]
Christians condemned Islam's polygamy while ignoring biblical precedents [fact]
Some Balkan Christians preferred Islamic rule over Catholic persecution [fact]
The enemy was reframed as a political, not religious, threat. [fact]
Early modern Europeans viewed Ottomans as European ethnic kin. [contrarian]
Ottoman territories sheltered religious minorities fleeing European persecution. [fact]
Luther prioritized defeating Catholicism over opposing Islam [fact]
Capitalism propelled backward Europe into global dominance. [causal]
Romanticism fueled the Western trend toward exotic imagery. [causal]
Enlightenment thinkers rehabilitated Muhammad as a rational founder [fact]
Medieval Christians initially saw Muslims as kin, not foreign enemies. [contrarian]
Ottoman rivals were viewed as secular political threats, not religious enemies. [causal]
East and West histories are deeply intertwined, not perpetually clashing. [contrarian]
Western elites weaponized Islamophobia during moments of conflict. [causal]
Napoleon's 1798 invasion pioneered knowledge-driven colonial conquest. [fact]
Napoleon inaugurated systematic scholarly knowledge serving imperial needs [causal]
Napoleon co-opted Islamic rhetoric to pacify Egyptian subjects [causal]
Colonial knowledge production displaces a people's sense of self. [causal]
Colonial powers framed conquest as paternalistic rescue missions [causal]
Colonialism originally justified itself through Christian theological arguments. [fact]
Nineteenth-century Europe replaced universalism with an imperialist superiority complex [causal]
Nineteenth-century theory framed civilizations as isolated and hierarchical evaluable units [fact]
Islam alone cannot explain differences across Muslim-majority societies. [contrarian]
Race-based theories portray Muslims as homogeneous and inferior. [causal]
Colonized peoples were framed as needing Western civilizing protection. [fact]
Nineteenth-century Orientalism rested on racial vilification of Muslims yet resisted neat generalization. [contrarian]
Western values allegedly hold little resonance in Islamic societies. [contrarian]
Nineteenth-century Americans learned about the Middle East largely through missionaries and Holy Land travelers. [fact]
Cold War funding steered US academia toward serving empire needs. [causal]
American opposition to empire shaped a distinct non-imperial self-image. [causal]
Cold War US aid demanded political allegiance from developing nations [causal]
U.S. imperialism rebranded itself as benevolent capitalist supremacy. [definitional]
Middle East studies long served US government needs before shifting critical [causal]
Islamophobic rhetoric predates 9/11 yet intensified sharply afterward [fact]
Islam's supposed uniformity stems from Orientalist monolith assumptions. [causal]
Islam's global diversity contradicts the myth of a monolith. [contrarian]
Islam varies regionally as local customs reshape its practice [causal]
Arabs and Muslims are distinct categories, not interchangeable. [definitional]
The homogenization of Islam undermines claims about a monolithic Islamic civilization. [contrarian]
Colonial rescue narratives justified imperial domination of Muslim societies [causal]
Colonial powers weaponized feminism to justify imperial domination. [causal]
Western veil bans mask Muslim women's own voices and agency. [contrarian]
Sexist practices in Islam derived partly from conquered Christian and Jewish cultures. [causal]
Renan attributed medieval Islamic science to Aryans, not Arabs. [fact]
Calling enemies irrational justifies denying them political legitimacy. [causal]
Iran's nuclear ambitions are rational given surrounding nuclear powers [contrarian]
Muslim empires preserved and advanced classical knowledge during Europe's Dark Ages. [fact]
Islamic empires fostered vigorous rationalist science and philosophy. [fact]
The Catholic Church violently suppressed early scientific rationalism. [fact]
Western narratives obscure Christianity's own history of violence. [contrarian]
Iran/Islam's violent-origins myth dates to Crusades-era and persists today [causal]
Muslim armies conquered Byzantine and Sassanid lands within two decades. [fact]
Crusaders slaughtered civilians far more than Muslim contemporaries [fact]
Only certain groups' violence gets religiously coded as inherent [contrarian]
Imperial ideologies transformed climatic stereotypes into scientific civilizational theories. [causal]
Self-government is a uniquely Western development in history. [fact]
Colonizers rationalized suppressing national liberation movements as protecting natives' interests [fact]
Western imperialists invoked racial hierarchy to justify denying colonial democracy [causal]
US foreign policy has actively undermined democratic movements abroad. [contrarian]
US policy prioritized weakening rivals over supporting genuine democracy [causal]
American leaders dismissed Middle Eastern nationalists as incapable of self-rule [fact]
The CIA overthrew Iran's democratically elected leader in 1953. [fact]
US backed counterrevolutionaries after Arab Spring uprisings toppled dictators [fact]
Arab democracy differs from Western electoral style [contrarian]
US foreign policy toward political Islam has been neither uniform nor consistent. [fact]
US Cold War policy cultivated Islamists to counter secular nationalism [causal]
US Cold War policy alternated between allying with and fighting Islamists. [fact]
The US backed Islamists to counter secular Arab nationalists [fact]
US Cold War strategy exploited religion against secular Arab nationalism. [causal]
United pan-Arab oil wealth would have threatened Western oil dominance. [causal]
It was even more so of nationalism. [fact]
Sadat used Islamism to weaken Egyptian secular nationalists. [fact]
Washington tolerated Saudi Islamism because it could be controlled from above. [causal]
Saudi defeat of secularism elevated Wahhabism across the Arab world [causal]
Saudi oil wealth funded Islamism through Islamic banks [causal]
Western financiers allied with Islamists to profit from petrodollars [causal]
CIA's 1953 coup enabled Khomeini's later rise to power [causal]
The Shah fell mainly because workers and bazaaris rebelled. [causal]
The Iranian revolution displaced secular nationalism as America's prime threat. [causal]
Reagan armed Islamists to weaken the Soviet Union. [fact]
CIA aid to mujahideen predated the Soviet invasion [fact]
The CIA recruited and trained foreign fighters within the United States. [fact]
Afghanistan's Soviet withdrawal legitimized global jihadist tactics [causal]
The US partnered with Taliban for Caspian energy access. [fact]
September 11th enabled Israel to reframe Islamic fundamentalism for the US. [fact]
Islamist movements gained significant momentum worldwide before 1991. [fact]
The Middle East's oil reserves drive US strategic interventions there. [causal]
Afghan war-era training enabled later terrorist blowback against the US. [causal]
The bombing accelerated secret-evidence deportations of Muslim noncitizens. [causal]
US policy toward Islamists shifts tactically while empire aims remain fixed [causal]
Islam has long separated political and religious power. [contrarian]
Political Islam is a contemporary phenomenon, not a natural outgrowth. [contrarian]
Muhammad's unification of tribes was partly commercially motivated. [causal]
Governing a unified empire drove Sharia's legal codification. [causal]
Theologians exaggerated religion-politics ties to protect credibility [contrarian]
Islamic religious dispersal prevented state-church clashes unlike Christendom. [causal]
Secularizing reforms eroded the ulama's traditional power base. [causal]
Colonial pressure drove Muslim empires toward modernization and Westernization [causal]
Ottoman, Egyptian, and Iranian rulers modernized militaries to resist colonization [fact]
Industrial modernization requires integrated supporting industries beyond weapons alone. [causal]
Ataturk dismantled Islamic institutions to consolidate secular authoritarian rule [causal]
Islamic revivalists rejected colonial influence through scripture and ijtihad [fact]
Early Salafism never called for overthrowing Muslim governments. [fact]
A Muslim Brotherhood slogan declared the Koran the sole constitution. [fact]
Secularism dominated Middle Eastern politics before mid-twentieth century. [fact]
Radical secular nationalists replaced failed precursors after 1945. [causal]
Secular nationalism dominated postwar colonized Muslim nations. [fact]
Nasser's "Arab socialism" was fundamentally secular despite Islamic rhetoric [causal]
Secular nationalism's failure enabled political Islam's resurgence [causal]
Political Islam stems from recent secular and economic developments, not scripture. [contrarian]
Religious fundamentalism rose globally in the late twentieth century. [fact]
Political goals can reshape religious doctrines toward activism. [causal]
Islamic scholars historically justify tyranny over anarchy to preserve the ummah. [fact]
Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood avoided confrontation with Israel until 1987. [fact]
The 1987 Intifada catalyzed Hamas's formation from Islamist debate. [fact]
Three structural conditions enabled the rise of Islamism. [causal]
Arab socialism relied on state planning and authoritarian repression. [definitional]
Secular nationalism favored middle-class interests over class equality. [causal]
Israel's 1967 victory destroyed Arab nationalism's political legitimacy. [causal]
Arab nationalist ideologies failed across economics, unity, and crisis. [causal]
Sadat's regime fostered Islamist groups to counter secularism. [causal]
The "Islamic" solution was to transport women in minibuses brought explicitly for this purpose. [fact]
Communist parties were the viable alternative to collapsed secular nationalism. [fact]
Communist parties blindly followed shifting Soviet foreign policy [causal]
Communist parties lost credibility by abandoning independence for nationalist alliances. [causal]
Structural adjustment weakened states and empowered Islamist social movements [causal]
Muslim-majority populations grew nearly fifty percent from 1955 to 1970. [fact]
Educated urban youth outpaced economic opportunities by 1975 [causal]
Islamist leaders of that era were urban-educated engineers and doctors. [fact]
Political Islam is a modern urban phenomenon, not medieval resurgence. [contrarian]
Islamist movements recruit leadership from the urban and refugee poor. [fact]
Middle-class Islamists prefer gradual change while displaced youth favor confrontation [causal]
Islamist politics vacillates because the petty bourgeoisie lacks social weight. [causal]
Petty-bourgeois class position makes Islamism internally contradictory. [causal]
Mass nonsectarian uprisings can topple dictators without terrorism. [causal]
Colonized peoples' resistance merits support in whatever form it takes [definitional]
Letting Hamas govern could expose its failures and open space for secular alternatives. [speculation]
Afghanistan should support self-determination while opposing both occupation. [fact]
The Taliban acts as a conduit for Pakistani influence in Afghanistan. [causal]
Islamist groups cooperate with colonial powers when it serves them. [contrarian]
Political Islam emerged from failures of secular and leftist movements. [causal]
Arab regimes empowered Islamist forces to weaken secular nationalists [fact]
Arab uprisings rebelled against both dictators and neoliberalism [fact]
Neoconservative think tank anticipated a catastrophic justifying event [fact]
The War on Terror reframed US policy around a manufactured Islamic threat [contrarian]
Michael Harrington coined "neoconservative" to disown rightward-shifting former allies. [fact]
Neoconservatism is defined by commitment to US unipolar military dominance. [causal]
American dominance defined neoconservative post-Cold War strategy. [definitional]
Pentagon's 1992 DPG report urged preventing new rivals. [fact]
Preemptive-war doctrine predated 9/11 in a 1990s defense report [fact]
Terrorism was initially just one of several stated US threats. [fact]
Support for Israel remains a defining tenet of neoconservatism [fact]
Jewish identity did not single-handedly determine neoconservative politics. [causal]
Neocon Zionism stems from politics and worldview, not ethnicity [contrarian]
Neoconservatives rejected Oslo's land-for-peace compromise principles [causal]
Neocons opposed Oslo as an Israeli power retreat. [causal]
Neocons urged Israel to destabilize Arab governments in 1996 [fact]
Israel's Likud party advocated weakening neighboring Arab states for safety. [fact]
Jonathan Institute framed Palestinian self-determination as genocidal terrorism. [causal]
Netanyahu reframed terrorism around Islamism by 1984. [fact]
Religious label terrorism only attaches when religion founded a state [definitional]
Israel empowered early Hamas to weaken the secular left. [causal]
US establishment bipartisan support for Zionism is politically required [fact]
Democracy and human rights discourse legitimizes Western military interventions. [causal]
Neoconservatives and liberal interventionists differ mainly on international institutions. [definitional]
Clinton aimed to expand democracy globally after Soviet collapse [fact]
CFR strategists argued religion did not immunize Muslims against communism. [fact]
Humanitarian missions often mask geostrategic and resource interests. [contrarian]
Sanctions targeting regimes disproportionately kill ordinary civilians. [fact]
The Iraq and Afghanistan wars pursued hegemonic control over Middle East oil. [causal]
The Bush Doctrine justified preventive war against potential threats. [definitional]
Sheehi points to the different approaches Lewis and Zakaria take. [fact]
Iraqi resistance undermined the neocons' post-9/11 agenda. [causal]
Counterinsurgency demands soldiers serve as nation builders, not just warriors. [definitional]
Military forces weaponize cultural knowledge to control populations. [causal]
Self-determination does not enter their framework—and "benevolent supremacy" remains unquestioned. [contrarian]
Obama's military actions rivaled Bush's war policies. [fact]
NATO's multilateral Afghanistan mission collapsed under domestic opposition [causal]
Obama continued the War on Terror against nonstate actors. [fact]
US strategy pivots to allies in Asia-Pacific to contain China and Iran. [fact]
Muslim lives worsened under Obama despite shifting Islamophobia. [contrarian]
Institutionalized persecution of Arabs and Muslims began in the 1970s. [fact]
Operation Boulder authorized broad surveillance of all Arabic-speaking individuals. [fact]
Arabs faced automatic terrorist suspicion despite verified JDL attacks. [causal]
NSEERS registration targeted Muslim immigrants without yielding a single conviction [fact]
Post-9/11 U.S. policy demonized Muslims and expanded to target activists. [fact]
Religious affiliation justifies deportation of Muslims on unsubstantiated terrorism claims. [fact]
Routinely Muslim behavior is treated as evidence of terror predisposition. [fact]
Post-9/11 US policy equated Islamic charity with terrorism. [fact]
Detained individuals face extreme isolation and restricted family contact. [fact]
Since 9/11, informants have entrapped over 200 people into terror plots. [fact]
Prosecutors use theatrical displays to obscure weak evidence [causal]
Domestic counterterrorism measures primarily manufacture fear rather than safety [contrarian]
NYPD's four-stage radicalization model criminalizes ordinary Muslim behaviors [contrarian]
Surveillance targets Muslims while exempting white extremist communities. [contrarian]
However, preemptive prosecution makes an exception for Muslims. [fact]
Agency disagreement persists over Islam's causal role in radicalization. [fact]
The end goal is to win consent for an imperial agenda through a process. [fact]
Foreign wars inevitably extend surveillance to domestic dissenters. [causal]
Right-wing Islamophobia entered public discourse after liberal narratives paved the way. [causal]
Media panic over homegrown terrorists enabled continued war policies. [causal]
Any American convert to Islam could be viewed as a threat. [causal]
Islam's potential for violence justifies alarmist prejudice in media. [contrarian]
Terrorism kills far fewer Americans than tornadoes or bicycles [fact]
Terrorism killed fewer Americans in 2009 than workplace accidents. [fact]
US think tanks rejected clash rhetoric largely to counter al-Qaeda recruitment. [causal]
Islamophobes captured the national debate amid terrorism hysteria. [causal]
Amid terrorism hysteria, hard right amplified opposition to the Islamic center. [causal]
Geller's rhetoric fuses Islamophobia, white supremacy, and extremism. [fact]
Media hysteria enabled far right to shape public opinion against the mosque. [causal]
Political leaders frame religious controversies through national security rather than principle. [causal]
Obama's defensive response legitimized anti-Muslim prejudice in 2010 [causal]
Islamophobia campaigns originated as a response to campus activism. [causal]
Neoconservatives leveraged political ties to police critical scholarship [causal]
Campus campaigns can successfully defend academics against unjust attacks. [fact]
Campus Watch channeled anti-Arab rhetoric to attack scholars [fact]
A local crusade forged the national anti-Muslim network blueprint. [causal]
Opponents fabricated tenuous connections to caricature educators as jihadists. [fact]
Organized pressure campaigns can force minority educators to resign. [causal]
Islamophobic extremists emerge from within US establishment structures. [causal]
Four aligned groups propagate the image of a menacing Muslim enemy. [fact]
Anti-Islamist researchers frame all Muslims as suspicious by default. [causal]
This is an open declaration of war on Muslims and the left. [definitional]
Democratic presidents historically enabled left-wing political persecution statutes [fact]
Seven foundations donated $43 million to influence peddlers from 2001 to 2009. [fact]
Clearly this is about politics, not religion. [contrarian]
Two of these foundations (Becker and Berrie) are explicitly committed to promoting what they. [fact]
Graham condemns Islam as inherently opposed to US law. [fact]
Anti-Islamic groups blocked mosque construction and arsoned sites. [fact]
Extreme religious views boost influence in Islamophobic networks. [causal]
Extremist views make their proponents more credible to Islamophobes [causal]
Media propaganda normalized questioning Muslims like Cold War reds. [causal]
Baseless claims about mosque radicalization spread through mainstream repetition [causal]
Liberal imperialists mirror neocons in framing Islamism as new totalitarianism [connection]
Anti-Muslim advocacy spans neocons, right-wingers, and liberal elites [fact]
The reader will notice that there is no separate box for the Islamophobes. [fact]
American military officers trained in mass targeting of Muslim civilians [fact]
Modern McCarthyism is collective, not one individual's effort. [causal]
Counterinsurgency strategy forced management of religious provocations abroad. [causal]
Islamophobia serves political agendas rather than religious concerns [causal]
Muslim Americans voted overwhelmingly for Obama despite later disillusionment [fact]
Obama's presidency continued Bush's militarized foreign policy agenda. [fact]
US foreign policy prioritizes allied stability over democratic ideals. [causal]
Obama expanded rather than reversed Bush-era counterterrorism policies. [contrarian]
Obama expanded preemptive prosecution targeting Muslims for surveillance. [fact]
Liberal rhetoric about Islam masks policies that target Muslims. [contrarian]
Counterterrorism policy serves political interests rather than real threats [causal]
Cooperation with law enforcement fails to shield Muslims from surveillance. [contrarian]
Muslim American confidence in Obama declined sharply between 2008 and 2011. [fact]
Community organizing can defeat opposition to Muslim institutions. [fact]
Most Wahhabis hold non-radical rather than extremist views [fact]
Muslim minorities in India founded Deobandism to preserve strict Islam. [causal]